The contradiction between supply and demand is indigestible

Since the second quarter, the nickel city storm, Shanghai nickel futures main 1907 contract price overall in 94280-104030 yuan/ton range.Analysts said that the current nickel market supply and demand contradiction is still indigestible, nickel price does not have the trend of upward opportunities, the macro level of uncertainty will make it difficult for non-ferrous metals shake off the pattern.

Futures price ups and downs

Nickel futures since April, Shanghai ups and downs, the main contract on April 4, 1907 to a record low stage high 104030 yuan/ton, confined downward all the way subsequently, stage low on May 10, 94540 yuan/ton, on May 24, rushed all the way up to high back again after 102830 yuan/ton, on June 6, has dropped to 94280 yuan/ton, again after shock rebound, as of Friday at 100060 yuan/ton, price almost unchanged since the second quarter.

"At the beginning of April, due to the loose supply expectation of domestic nickel-iron, high social inventory of stainless steel, and continued weak terminal demand, the center of gravity of nickel price continued to move down.At the end of may, the fluctuation of nickel price increased, the domestic refined nickel inventory remained low for a long time, the LME nickel discount narrowed significantly, and the demand for raw nickel remained stable due to high stainless steel output.Sdic letter futures nonferrous group leader car hongyun, intermediate analyst xin weihua said.

Analysts at epoch futures said the recent flooding in Indonesia had once again affected market sentiment, with a rebound in nickel prices triggered by supply concerns in Indonesia, but this factor only affected the short-term rhythm and did not change the trend of the short term bias.The maximum new capacity pressure after the fourth quarter, the third quarter may be Indonesia delong stainless steel production and "gold nine silver ten" traditional consumption season support, so now is not the most pessimistic time.

Short-term trends can be volatile

It is worth mentioning that the second quarter nickel price two rounds of rebound process, basically accompanied by the market "noise".Che hongyun and xin weihua said that a series of factors, including the election unrest in Indonesia, the sulawesi flood and the review of nickel mines in Indonesia, have provided a very limited boost to the nickel price and the fundamentals of the nickel market have not changed significantly.First, from the point of view of refined nickel supply chain, this year's global and China refined nickel production is expected to increase slightly.Since the end of April, the import window of domestic refined nickel has been opened, and the import profit has expanded to over 2000 yuan in recent two days, and the warehouse receipt of domestic refined nickel inventory has started to pick up significantly.Considering the increasing supply of imports, nickel market squeeze logic is bound to be difficult to last.Due to the

From the point of view of stainless steel link, after the rebound of nickel price, high nickel iron price and stainless steel price did not follow up, the market performance is more rational.At present, the domestic mainstream steel introduced high nickel iron purchase price in 930-940 yuan/nickel point between, the price of fine nickel depth discount.In fact, the cost center of gravity of steel mills is also moving down, state-owned steel mills integrated steel mills are now profitable, steel mills for raw nickel demand performance remains stable.Therefore, the stainless steel market destorying in the background of high output steel mills difficult to continue.

For the future, car hongyun, xin weihua said, still need to focus on the raw nickel supply and demand.First of all, the increase of ferric nickel supply has basically become the consensus in the market, with the domestic production of primary nickel this year rising 17.7% to 805,000 tons compared with the same period last year.Secondly, domestic and foreign refined nickel destocking process has slowed down significantly, after the import window opened domestic refined nickel supply is expected to pick up significantly.Under the background of constant supply increase, the change of consumer end will continue to affect the price trend of nickel in the later period.At present, the stainless steel output is basically stable, high inventory, low consumption of the status quo is difficult to change, the price of stainless steel may be further down the space.

In the short term, high stainless steel inventories may eventually weigh on nickel demand, while a gradual recovery in domestic refined nickel inventories and continued decline in ferric nickel prices suggest supply pressures are emerging, analysts at epoch futures said.However, the recent flood in Indonesia has triggered supply concerns, and the current inventory is still low. Although nickel price is bearish in the middle line, the short-term trend may still be repeated.Overall, nonferrous metals are still in the macro market, before the international trade situation is not clear, the uncertainty of the market makes it difficult to shake off the pattern of non-ferrous metals.

From my steel web